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earth_as_one
 
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Quote earth_as_one Replybullet Topic: Can someone explain what Iran is doing?
    Posted: 17 December 2005 at 9:51pm
But I might be wrong
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Quote Community Replybullet Posted: 17 December 2005 at 11:19pm

I think Iran is seeing it's population increasingly becoming pro-democratic and drifting away from the grip of the religious esteblishment, this ofcourse does not sit well with them so they are trying to provoke a war it seems as a way to radicalize the civilian population against the west as has been done in Iraq through a media propaganda campaign using civilian casualties as a way of incitement with slang words like "judeo-christian crusade". One thing is for sure, Iran will put up a much stiffer resistance then Iraq i believe, and this on it's turn would give rise in the ranks of those who wish to fight against The US and the west, basically it will cause a wider conflict. I believe the considerations are wether such a widening of the conflict would mean a strategic gain or disadvantage, and i believe Iran thinks it would mean a disadvantage otherwise it would not have acted this way, same thing as North Korea did right after the US invaded Iraq with announcing they got nukes... "But i might be wrong"

 

 



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ak_m_f
 
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Quote ak_m_f Replybullet Posted: 18 December 2005 at 3:26am

Iran just comitted suicide
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earth_as_one
 
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Quote earth_as_one Replybullet Posted: 18 December 2005 at 8:52am

Thanks for the response Community.

My understanding is that Iran elects their leaders after they have been screened by the religious authority.  The people pulling the strings of power behind the scenes are religious. That makes Iran a Theocracy. 

In a way, here in Canada, in the west in General and especially in the US our political candidates also go through a screening process.  If you don't have the support of the wealthy elite and the media moguls, you will never be heard.  Sure anyone can run, but without millions of dollars behind you, you haven't a chance.  The people pulling the strings of power behind the scenes are the wealthy elite.  That's makes most western nations, Plutocracies.

Both systems seem only partially Democratic.  Or they create an illusion of Democracy.  One is based on piousness, the other on greed.  Personally I really don't care for either system.  I wish we had a movement here in the West to become more Democratic.

I'm not a Muslim, but provoking a war, seems well, un-Islamic.  If I understand Islam, its a peaceful and tolerant Religion.  Sure like any religion it has its fanatics who would hide behind a religious facade to promote hatred and violence to further their ambition driven agenda.

Surely the Iranians know that a direct conflict with the US/Israel would be, as ak_m_f noted, suidical.  As the recent invasion of Iraq proved, these nations have the power and the will to invade and occupy other nations.

So I wonder what the advantage is?  The US is bogged down in Iraq.  From my observations of the US, starting another war would be unpopular.

Is Iran ready for war?  If so they better have a way to neutralize America's air superiority.  If it came down to a purely ground based war, I think Iran could defend itself.

So based on your response I did some research.

This link analyses how Iran might fight the US

http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/18401

This link shows Iran has domestic reserves of uranium ore

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/mines.htm

Iran's military

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_9944.shtml

Iran's purchase of Russian Tor-M1 surface to air missile systems.

http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/88/354/16570_Iran.html

I'm not an expert, but it looks to me like Iran still needs time to be able to defend itself from the US.  Its still a couple of years away from possessing nukes.  Its air defenses are still a work in progress.  But it does have a significant CW and BW capability.

Overall, the best Iran can hope for is a draw.  More likely a war with the US will result in a invasion/occupation.

I still don't see the logic behind Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel remarks. 

But I might be wrong
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Quote Community Replybullet Posted: 18 December 2005 at 11:49am
Such comments sit well with those who hold such an extreem agenda and if Iran gets into a conflict he will need support for these kind of people, i think they expect to engage a guerilla war in which the plan is to tire the US down and maybe expects North Korea to join in and whoever else see their chances as more favorable. But i do not believe the US is taking the bait. I think Iran just needs a couple of generations, or maybe by the next one this kind of extreemism would be gone. It is a matter of perspective wether to see the best way forward for all the safety of Israel in which it does not feel threatened by it's neighbours and that this would mean greater freedom for the palestinians and an agreeable settlement of the Jerusalem issue or if this would embolden Israel to take greater parts of the region as some believe, and since the extreemist voices sound so loud through loudspeakers it is hard for us to ignore it and such voices are perceived by some as favorable to their own interests. Although the majority i believe truely wishes peace, it is a small minority that works as hard as possible to instill misplaced fears in people and make them act unjustly on the basis of these misplaced fears. This is done by giving extreemists loudspeakers for instance(lol)

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Quote Whisper Replybullet Posted: 19 December 2005 at 2:56am

Is Iran trying to provoke a war?

Did you just wake up from some deep slumber? The war has been going for ages.

Is there any harm in holding a different view from the great masters of the universe on, say, the truth of the holocaust or anything else?

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voiceoftawheed
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Quote voiceoftawheed Replybullet Posted: 19 December 2005 at 7:27am

Source: Aljazeera.net

Iranian President Ahmadinejad's comments:

"If the massacre of the Jews in Europe is true and used as an excuse to support Zionists, why should the Palestinians pay the price?"

"You oppressed them, so give a part of Europe to the Zionist regime so they can establish any government they want. We would support it."


"So, Germany and Austria, come and give one, two or any number of your provinces to the Zionist regime so they can create a country there ... and the problem will be solved at its root."

 

"Why do they insist on imposing themselves on other powers and creating a tumour so there is always tension and conflict?"




What's wrong in his demands? (except 'wipe-off the map').


Ask America how it will react if the Afghan refugees demand a land in its heart? If the answer is negative (very obviously), how it supports the Zionist invasion in Palestine?


The reaction of the UN on Ahmadinehad's comments is as if some one has hurt their kid. If they are so sympathetic to the Jews and their past sufferings, why don't they spare a part of their own land to the Jews?


No, they will never do it. Because they never want a solution for this  problem nor are they in favour of well-being of the Jews. They have chosen a Muslim country to compensate for their own misdeeds. So, let there be a never ending crisis (tumour - as described by Ahmadinejad) among the Muslims.






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Quote Whisper Replybullet Posted: 19 December 2005 at 7:57am

as a way to radicalize the civilian population against the west

Yaar, be honest (despite the fact you are an Amreeki at the end of the day) does anyone need anything to radicalise anyone as if "west's" filthy policies were not enough?

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